The Monetary Policy Council, at its meeting held on April 1–2, 2025, decided to keep the interest rates of the National Bank of Poland unchanged. This decision marks a continuation of the monetary policy pursued since October 2023.

Current interest rate levels of the National Bank of Poland (NBP)

• Reference rate – 5.75%
• Lombard rate – 6.25%
• Deposit rate – 5.25%
• Rediscount rate – 5.80%
• Bill discount rate – 5.85%

Global context

The Council notes that in the euro area, the annual GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2025 was similar to the level recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024. Inflation in the region has slightly declined; however, core inflation remains elevated. In contrast, the United States has shown initial signs of weakening economic activity, while inflation continues to hover slightly above the Federal Reserve’s target. Global economic and inflationary outlooks remain subject to significant uncertainty, due in part to shifts in the trade policies of major world economies.

Economic situation in Poland

Data for Q1 2025 indicate weaker than expected economic growth. In February, annual dynamics of retail sales and industrial production were negative, and construction and assembly production also slowed down. The labor market remains strong – unemployment is low and the number of employed persons is high – although employment in the corporate sector was lower than a year ago. Wage growth is still high, but the data indicate a gradual decrease in the pace of wage growth.

Inflation

According to revised Central Statistical Office (GUS) data and the flash inflation estimate for March, annual CPI inflation in the first quarter of 2025 amounted to 4.9%, which is lower than previously forecasted.

The persistently high level of inflation is primarily influenced by:

• partial unfreezing of energy prices from July 2024,
• tariff increases for natural gas distribution from January 2025,
• increase in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages.

The Council notes that inflation net of energy and food prices has probably fallen. Nevertheless, in the coming months inflation will remain above the NBP inflation target, mainly due to earlier increases in regulated prices, an increase in excise duty and further growth in the prices of administered services.

According to current regulations another increase in regulated energy prices is expected in the second half of 2025. .

Factors of risk and uncertainty

The Monetary Policy Council points to a number of risk factors for further inflation developments:

• the impact of inflation on inflation expectations and wage pressure,
• tensions between growing demand and supply-side constraints,
• uncertainty about future fiscal and regulatory actions,
• and the impact of the global inflation situation – especially in the context of changes in trade policy.

Monetary policy – ​​what next?

In the opinion of the Monetary Policy Council, the current level of interest rates is conducive to achieving the inflation target in the medium term. Subsequent decisions will be made based on new data and forecasts regarding inflation and economic growth. The Council emphasises the NBP’s readiness to take actions aimed at ensuring macroeconomic and financial stability, including interventions on the currency market, if necessary.

Borrowers still under pressure

Maintaining the reference rate at 5.75% means that the cost of servicing loans remains high. Despite the gradual stabilization of inflation, households and companies are not yet experiencing significant relief in debt-related expenses.

The Monetary Policy Council has been keeping interest rates unchanged since October 2023. Given the continuing uncertainty and inflation risks, the scenario of changing the monetary policy stance remains postponed.